Sports Betting Odds

CASINO ODDS: Page 1 | Page 2 | Page 3

Baccarat Game Odds

Enjoy Baccarat at up to $5,000 a hand at Aces High Online Casino
Baccarat is a casino game that actually offers fairly decent odds for players. Playing the game is very simple because there are only three different wagering options, and each hand is played out according to a fixed set of rules. Read more to learn which bet is the best - you might be surprised.

The Three Types of Bets
Baccarat may seem like a confusingly sophisticated game to the untrained eye, but it really is quite simple. The only decision a player makes is whether to put his or her chips in the area on the table marked "player," "banker," or "tie." For specifics on rules of play, consult the baccarat game rules.

Betting Odds

The rules of play in Baccarat have been carefully constructed to produce a small, yet measurable advantage for the house for both player and banker bets, and a steep jump in advantage for tie bets. Complex calculations are used to determine that the banker will win 50.68% of all non-tie hands and the player 49.32%. Using $100 worth of bets against these percentages shows that you can expect to lose $50.68 and win $49.32. The difference between the two is $1.36, hence a 1.36 house edge against the "player" bet.

So why then, you might ask, does the banker bet offer no real house advantage if it wins more than half of the time at 50.68%? Well, casinos are definitely wise to this. If they allowed the game to be played while giving up an edge to players, they would go bankrupt. Casinos have taken this odds discrepancy into account, and made adjustments to tilt the advantage back into their favor by way of a 5% commission on winning banker bets.

The banker bet odds can be calculated as follows: let's say you are wagering $100. Taking into account the 5% commission on winning banker bets, you will win $.95 for ever dollar wagered. Expecting to win 50.68% of the time, multiply $.95 by 50.68 and you get $48.15. You still can expect to lose $49.32, and the difference is $1.17, resulting in a 1.17% house advantage.

Tie bets happen approximately 9.55% of the time, meaning the true odds of a tie bet are 9.47 to 1. Dividing 9.55 into 100 gives us 10.47 and taking into account the fact that you will receive your original wager back, the proper odds are 9.47 to 1. So, winning a tie bet should have you winding up with $10.47, but instead you wind up with $9. Dividing the difference, $1.47, into $10.47 gives the house a 14.4% advantage. You might be tempted by the 8 to 1 payout, but the odds on this bet are unfavorable compared to the banker and player bets. Logic dictates that despite the 5% commission attached to winning the banker bet, it still offers the most favorable odds in baccarat, and over time you can expect to lose less by utilizing this option.

BACK TO TOP

Blackjack Game Odds

Back your Bankroll with a $400 comp in the Blackjack Ballroom
Understanding the odds will play a large role in becoming a successful player at the game of Blackjack. It is one of the only games that is beatable, meaning that by acquiring the right skills, a player can swing the advantage into his or her favor.

This is possible for a couple of reasons:

A critical first step is learning how to play Blackjack using basic strategy. Anyone can do this with a little practice. By learning to play Blackjack using perfect basic strategy, you will already reduce the casino's edge to a mere 0.80% - the second lowest among all table games - and far better than the odds found at the Roulette tables and most slot machines.

Blackjack is a dependent variable game, meaning that as each card is dealt from the deck(s), the odds of any remaining card - like an Ace or 10 - coming up next is constantly changing. If you're playing a single deck game, before any cards have been dealt, you know that the odds of any Ace being dealt are 4 out of 52. If the first two cards dealt are both Aces, then there is only a 2 out of 50 (or 1 in 25) chance that the next card will be another Ace. Over time, experts have used computer simulations to determine that high cards like Aces and Tens are beneficial to the player, and conversely small cards are good for the dealer. If you are able to keep track of which cards have left the deck, you would obviously stand a better chance at knowing which cards remain, hence which ones are most likely to be dealt on the very next draw. This is where the house edge is nullified, and the player begins to build a small, yet sizable edge over the house. Such is the advantage of becoming a skilled blackjack player.

Adjustments in Strategy
Once you have learned basic strategy, and then how to track the count while playing, the next step is to vary your playing strategy to account for the current game odds at any given moment. If you know that the deck is loaded with face cards, you might not want to hit that 12 against the dealer's up card of 10, knowing that their is an increased likelihood that you will bust. If the deck has lots of tens, you may decide to risk doubling on 11 against a dealer's Ace, even though basic strategy says not to. It is small modifications in play that will cut into the house's edge and put those percentage points on your side.

Other variations in play include changing your betting level. If the odds favor the player, bet bigger. If they favor the dealer, bet smaller. This is common knowledge, but mastering the art of knowing when and how to bet is a key factor in becoming a skilled player. Something to keep in mind is that while adjusting your bets according to the odds at any given time, do so in a reasonable manner. This means avoiding the rapid escalation of bets when the odds shift into your favor. Regardless of whether you're playing at the Trump Plaza in AC, or at your favorite online casino, chances are that if you jump from $10 a hand to $100 a hand, someone will notice. Pit personnel are trained to watch out for exactly this sort of thing, so you will need to disguise your betting. If the odds are in your favor and you win a hand, double your next bet, or raise it by one unit. This is a very natural betting pattern that any player might use, and much less likely to draw unwanted attention. I will also note that many online casinos use software whose mathematical algorithms are programmed to detect wild swings in betting. So, since there is no pit boss to give you the boot at your own computer, the odds of many blackjack games at online casinos do not favor the player when making a large escalation in bet from one hand to the next. Stick with a similar raising strategy to what you'd use at a land casino, and you will be better off.

Event Frequency

Another important factor in blackjack mastery is knowing how often certain events occur. Maybe you've wondered how often blackjacks come up, or what the win/loss/tie breakdown is between players and the house. On average, a player will win 44% of the time, the dealer 48% and 8% of hands will result in a tie. With these odds, you might logically deduce that a player will lose more money than he or she will win. However, you must also take into account the built-in player advantages that Blackjack offers like doubling down, splitting, and the fact that blackjack pays out at 3 to 2. While you will likely end up losing more hands than you win, you should just about break even monetarily, because you win more when you do win. If you win a double down, you get twice what you would expect than for winning only one hand, but it still counts as a single win for the player. Also, if the dealer gets a blackjack, you lose only your initial bet, instead of 1 1/2 times the bet, which is what a player wins by getting a Blackjack.

The chart above shows us that both the player and the dealer can expect a blackjack at a rate of 1 out of every 20 hands, or 5% of the time. An important thing to remember is that when a dealer shows an Ace, odds are that he or she will make a blackjack 32% of the time, meaning there won't be one the other 68% of the time. If the dealer has an Ace showing, you will be asked if you would like to take the Insurance bet, which pays 2 to 1. Since the dealer will not have a blackjack 68% of the time, that's about how often you can expect to lose this bet, thus reinforcing why basic strategy says never to take the insurance bet. So when should you take the insurance bet? Only when you're an expert card counter, and the plus count is sky high, letting you know that the odds are actually in favor of the dealer having a ten card under that Ace. Even then, it is still a risky proposition, so, as wise guys say: "fuhgeddaboudit."

House Rules' effect on Odds

If you've played Blackjack in more than one location, odds are the rules of the game had slight variations. Las Vegas Strip rules are different from Downtown Vegas rules which are different from Atlantic City rules which are different from Gulf Coast Mississippi rules and so on. So why is there no international standard for Blackjack table rules? Basically, casinos like to be able to make small changes in their games to either attract or detract certain types of players. While probably more than half of the tourists and other recreational players only bother to look or inquire about a game's rules as far as the table minimum, smart players know that particular rules have direct relationships on the player's edge. Certain rules impact the edge favorably for players, others add to the house advantage. Looking for a game that has good rules is another important factor in improving your odds.

The chart shows us what percentage (positive or negative) different rule variations commonly found at today's casinos will have on a player. Starting at the top, definitely avoid all games where the dealer wins ties. This gives the house a big edge. Next, the lower the number of decks being used, the better the odds for players. Regardless of whether you're playing basic strategy, counting cards, or just guessing, single and double deck games give you better odds of winning. When you play multiple deck games dealt from a shoe, a blank card (usually colored red or yellow) will be inserted towards the end of the stack. All cards up to this card will be dealt during the game. Once the card is reached, it is time to shuffle. Depending on where the card is placed, the odds will improve or decrease for players. This is known as "penetration." Closer to the end of the stack (deeper penetration) is good for players because more cards will come out of the shoe during a game, meaning you have greater chances at predicting the remaining cards as the game progresses. Shallow penetration is bad for the player for the opposite reason. If the marker card is put only halfway into the stack, the odds of predicting what will be drawn next is greatly reduced. Taking it a step further, by playing single and double deck games, you can eliminate this scenario almost entirely as all the cards are usually dealt out.

Going back to the chart, you can see that being able to double on only 10 and 11 has a negative effect for the player, while being able to double on 3 or more cards and doubling after splits has a positive effect. Look for games where the dealer stand on all 17s - they're pretty common in the United States. Avoid games where the dealer does not take a second card until after the players are done. While surrender has a positive effect for players, it is rarely found these days, and even more rarely utilized properly. For more information on surrender, see our Blackjack FAQ. Lastly, try to find games where you are allowed to resplit aces. Most games give you but a single card on each Ace when you split them, and do not allow resplitting of Aces. If you get an Ace on top of your split Ace, naturally you would want to split again, rather than stand on a 12, so this rule can have a big impact on player odds.

Summary
Blackjack is a fun and exciting game with players largely because it is beatable. Become a skilled player and the odds will shift into your favor, giving you a positive expectation of winning. This means that over time, playing Blackjack will result in you gaining money instead of losing it. Understanding basic strategy and counting techniques are integral to your success, but also having good betting strategy and knowing how rules impact the odds is equally important. Little things like these help players. Be sure to at least learn basic strategy, and then you will probably be better than 80% of all blackjack players worldwide. All it takes is a little practice.

BACK TO TOP